Beware of "Grey Rhino" Power Lithium Battery Production Expansion
De enero a noviembre, el volumen de ventas de vehículos de nueva energía en mi país alcanzó los 2,99 millones, un aumento interanual-sobre-del 166,8 por ciento. Desde el primero de noviembre, la tasa de penetración en el mercado de vehículos de nuevas energías ha alcanzado el 12,7 por ciento. Además, dado que la tasa de penetración de los vehículos de nueva energía supera el punto crítico del 10 %, las ventas de vehículos de nueva energía baten nuevos récords mes a mes y se espera que la tasa de penetración supere el 20 % en 2022.
The demand for power lithium-ion batteries on the vehicle side is also constantly jumping. Under the new development pattern, battery companies aimed at market trends and started a new wave of "capacity expansion". Ningde era, the output is expected to reach 320GWh by the end of 2022, and the output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh; BYD, the planned output in 2025 will exceed 600GWh; AVIC Lithium Power, the planned output in 2025 is 500GWh, and the output in 2030 is 1TWh...
So, how do you view the expansion of power lithium-ion battery production? From December 14th to 15th, "The Sixth International Summit on Power Li-ion Battery Application (CBIS2021)" was held in Ganzhou, Jiangxi. Companies and institutions from upstream and downstream of the entire vehicle, power lithium-ion battery, materials, equipment and other industrial chains have conducted in-depth discussions on this topic.
La expansión de la producción de baterías de iones de litio-power se está convirtiendo en una tendencia
Desde 2021, las dos palabras clave para el desarrollo de baterías de iones de litio-de potencia son: aumento de precios y expansión de la producción.
According to public information, as my country's leading power lithium-ion battery company CATL, the planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh, and the output planning area involves Fujian Ningde, Sichuan, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanghai and other places. BYD's production expansion speed is not as fast as that of CATL. According to preliminary statistics, BYD's planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 600GWh, involving Guangdong, Qinghai, Chongqing, Hunan, Xi'an, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. At present, AVIC Lithium Battery, which ranks third in the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries, also has a production plan of 500GWh in 2025. Yiwei Lithium Energy will build a production capacity of 200GWh in 2023. Guoxuan Hi-Tech's production plan in 2025 is 300GWh...According to the incomplete statistics of batteries in my country, since the beginning of this year, the newly planned output of domestic and foreign top battery companies has approached 2500GWh.
Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the my country Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, emphasized that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly this year. This shows that with the continuous maturity of power lithium-ion battery technology, consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles has increased significantly.
A juzgar por la capacidad instalada más reciente, los datos de Power Li-ion Battery Application Branch muestran que, de enero a noviembre de este año, la capacidad instalada de baterías de iones de litio-power en el mercado chino fue de aproximadamente 128,3 GWh, un aumento del 153,1 por ciento año-sobre-año, y se espera que la capacidad instalada anual sea cercana a los 150 GWh. Además, desde la perspectiva de la tecnología de baterías, por un lado, las baterías de fosfato de hierro y litio son favorecidas por el mercado debido a sus ventajas en economía y seguridad. De enero a noviembre de este año, la capacidad instalada de baterías de fosfato de hierro y litio en el mercado chino alcanzó los 64,8 GWh, por primera vez por encima de los 63,3 GWh de capacidad instalada de baterías ternarias.
Vale la pena mencionar que la ventaja de costo de las baterías de fosfato de hierro y litio también ha atraído la atención y el favor de muchas grandes compañías automotrices en todo el mundo, incluidas Tesla, Volkswagen, Daimler, GM, Ford, Hyundai y otras compañías automotrices internacionales. Todos indicaron que introducirían baterías de fosfato de hierro y litio, y compañías de baterías como LG New Energy y SKI también están acelerando el despliegue de baterías de fosfato de hierro y litio.
Liu Yanlong pointed out that under the background of the reform of the global automobile industry and the tightening of carbon emission policies, the pace of electrification of mainstream car companies has accelerated, and the energy storage industry will also enter a stage of large-scale development. "Based on this judgment, the expansion of power lithium-ion batteries has also entered the fast lane. The domestic and foreign leading battery companies have all expanded their production by hundreds of GWh this year. In the future, the market demand for upstream materials of power lithium-ion batteries will also be 'rising all boats'. .We predict that the TWh era of power and energy storage battery demand will arrive before 2025."
Power lithium-ion battery "price surge" followed closely
The hot spot parallel to the expansion of production is the tide of price increases. Not long ago, the "battery shortage" of power lithium-ion batteries has not dissipated, and the topic of price increases has pushed the power lithium-ion battery industry to the forefront. Recently, many mainstream power lithium-ion battery companies such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy have issued price increase letters. According to media reports, due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, at the beginning of next year, the price of cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells will increase again by 5 percent -15 percent .
Desde principios de este año, las materias primas de las baterías de iones de litio-power upstream también han aumentado. Los datos muestran que el carbonato de litio a 40,000 yuanes/tonelada en 2020 ahora ha aumentado a 210,000/tonelada; el hexafluorofosfato de litio ha aumentado de 100,000 yuanes/tonelada en 2020 a 550,000/tonelada; el electrolito también ha aumentado de 40,000 yuanes/tonelada en 2020 a 120,000/tonelada; PVDF aumentó de 80,000/tonelada en 2020 a 500,000/tonelada; VC aumentó de 200,000/tonelada en 2020 a 400,000/tonelada.
Wu Feng, académico de la Academia de Ingeniería de China y profesor del Instituto de Tecnología de Beijing, enfatizó que, impulsada por el aumento en las ventas de vehículos de nueva energía y la demanda de baterías de iones de litio-energéticas, la demanda de diversos materiales para las baterías de iones de litio - también ha aumentado significativamente desde principios de este año, como el carbonato de litio y el hidróxido de litio. , cátodos, ánodos, separadores, electrolitos, hexafluorofosfato de litio, etc., los precios en general han aumentado y algunos materiales han aumentado cinco o seis veces. La tensión entre la oferta y la demanda se ha vuelto prominente, lo que genera una gran presión de costos para las compañías de baterías y no es propicia para la industria de vehículos de nueva energía. La demanda de reducción general de costos.
Regarding the reasons for the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Fund, analyzed three reasons. First of all, the quantitative easing brought about by the once-in-a-century epidemic in 2020 will bring about the inflation of global commodities. In the field of power lithium-ion batteries, it is inevitable that global energy prices and mineral prices have risen. Second, the sudden change in the supply and demand relationship and the insufficient supply of upstream materials for power lithium-ion batteries have led to a gradual increase in supply prices. Third, during the adjustment period of the industrial chain, the previous price reductions and delays by OEMs and battery factories on upstream material companies have led to frustrations in the motivation of upstream suppliers to expand production, and now it has evolved into a "retaliatory" price increase.
Wu Feng said that in the long run, lithium battery materials will face resource shortages, as well as nickel, cobalt and other resources, and the industry must take precautions. After years of development, my country's new energy vehicle and power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a critical period.
Fang Jianhua emphasized that my country's new energy vehicle industry has gone through three stages. The first stage is the savage rise stage from 2010 to 2016; the second stage is the adjustment and reshuffle stage from 2017 to 2020. A large number of companies are in this stage. Closing down; the third stage is the rapid growth stage starting in 2021.
Desde la perspectiva de la cadena industrial, debido a la escasez y al impacto de la competencia internacional, la relación de oferta y demanda será tensa durante mucho tiempo para el upstream de cobalto, níquel, litio y otros recursos minerales de litio energético{{0} }baterías de iones. Los materiales positivos y negativos de midstream, electrolitos, diafragmas, etc., se ven afectados principalmente por una producción insuficiente en un corto período de tiempo, y lograrán un equilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda en 1-2 años. Para la fábrica de baterías de iones de litio de potencia descendente, la demanda real actual no coincide con la salida existente, la salida efectiva es insuficiente y la planificación existente supera con creces las expectativas.
Pensamiento frío sobre el frenesí de la expansión de la batería de litio
Judging from the expansion plans of major power lithium-ion batteries, this round of expansion can be described as "crazy". Under this trend, we are asked to think coldly.
Judging from the 128.3GWh installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in my country's market from January to November, the market share of the top ten installed capacity exceeds 92 percent . Among them, the total installed capacity of CATL is about 65.93GWh, accounting for 51.39 percent of the month, and the total installed capacity of other companies is about 62GWh. In the face of such a huge expansion plan in the future, will the power lithium-ion battery industry chain have such a huge production demand?
"my country's new energy vehicles will have a compound growth rate of more than 30 percent in the future. This year is 3.4 million, next year is expected to be 5.1 million, and it will reach 9 million by 2025. This is a basic certainty issue." Fang Jianhua roughly According to calculations, if it is inferred from the number of 9 million new energy vehicles, the total demand for power lithium-ion batteries is only about 600GWh. In addition, even considering the demand for new energy vehicle batteries in overseas markets, the total planned volume of 2500GWh is in excess. "On the one hand, we need to think coldly when the industry is hot, and on the other hand, we need to consider the real demand, whether there is a mature technology behind the expansion, whether the management ability can keep up, and whether the supply chain can guarantee ."
Fang Jianhua said that the battery factory should consider at least these five factors when expanding production: the first real demand. "If my country's new energy vehicles reach 18 million by 2030. At present, except for the Ningde era, whether other battery companies can achieve a 5 percent share is already considerable. With the market share of power lithium-ion batteries unchanged, 10 million vehicles. The proportion of 5 percent of electric vehicles is only 500,000, and the installed capacity is only about 30GWh. And this is only obtained by competing with CATL, BYD, and foreign companies." In Fang Jianhua's view, the company is expanding In production, understanding the real needs is crucial.
En segundo lugar, si la estabilidad del proceso técnico puede soportar una rápida expansión de la producción. La etapa ascendente después de la expansión de la producción de baterías de iones de litio-de potencia es un proceso doloroso que requiere una gran cantidad de recursos humanos, financieros y materiales. Por lo tanto, la estabilidad de la tecnología de proceso también es particularmente importante.
Third, the management level. Fang Jianhua emphasized, "There are not enough people involved in the management of remote factories. Once the management is not in place, the consequences will be huge."
Fourth, whether the supply chain can be guaranteed. "The one who has the supplier wins the world. In the current supply chain, the company must advance and retreat together with the supply chain when expanding production. There must be a strong supply chain guarantee system."
Fifth, financial capital security. Fang Jianhua further explained that the blessing of the local government and market capital is only temporary. The company has not formed its own hematopoietic capacity, and without sufficient profits, it will not last in the process of expansion. "If there is no sustainable funding guarantee, this blind expansion will eventually become a 'gray rhino'."
